Tesla displays the Optimus next to two of its vehicles at the World Robot Congress in Beijing on August 22, 2024.
CNBC | Evelyn
BEIJING – While Chinese companies last week showed off human-like robots that play the harp or hold sodas, Tesla She displayed her Optimus robot inside a transparent box, motionless next to her cars.
Elon Musk claims Optimus can fold clothes and one day cook, clean or teach children — technology he’s touting could add $25 trillion to Tesla’s value. Musk says Tesla plans to test the robots in its factories next year. It’s unclear how well they’ll perform at the moment.
Meanwhile, the World Robot Congress, which kicked off in Beijing on Wednesday, announced that 27 humanoid robots made their debut at the event, a record number. And, like the country’s push into electric cars a few years ago, money and resources are now pouring into developing humanoid robots.
Total investment in China's robotics industry over the past decade has exceeded 100 billion yuan ($14.01 billion), said Wei Cao, a partner at Lanshi Ventures, adding that the company manages assets worth 15 billion to 20 billion yuan.
Kao told CNBC that he expects the next milestone in humanoid robotics to come in the next year or two: a commercially viable use case in manufacturing where robots can move around and know how to prioritize a series of tasks.
This is more complex than repeating a single task, such as holding a water bottle, which robots can already do, Kao noted. He noted that AI, including models from OpenAI and alibabaThis has greatly improved the success of robots in processing information to perform tasks.
Lanchi Ventures is an investor in Agibot, a Shanghai-based startup founded in February 2023 by a former Huawei employee. A few days before the World Robot Congress, the startup unveiled five new robots, some of which are available for pre-order with a 5,000 yuan deposit.
Agibot plans to start delivering some of the robots in mid-October, followed by a batch of 300 starting in November. Its advertisements for the humanoid robots show that they can serve as salespeople, guides at trade shows or selectors of factory parts. Some were on display at the conference.
Also at the conference was Stardust Intelligence’s humanoid Astribot S1, which was shown in a promotional video in late April folding a shirt and pouring wine. Some of the robots on display at the conference performed complex Chinese martial arts moves, played the harp and wrote Chinese calligraphy with a brush.
Shenzhen-based Stardust was founded in December 2022 by a former member of Tencent and Baidu Robotics projects. The startup says it uses AI to support imitation learning in robots, where machines can repeat actions after watching them.
Other humanoid robots, from lesser-known companies like Galbot and Turui, place products into baskets or move individual soda cans from one shelf to another.
Some actions were stiff and slow. It was not always clear whether actions were being performed remotely or autonomously. Demos did not reveal everything about the product's capabilities.
The number and types of demonstrations at the World Robotics Conference have increased significantly compared with last year, said Cao of Lanshi, noting that many students and young people also attended.
In his estimation, Tesla and other U.S. companies’ robotics technology is likely to be a year or two ahead of China’s, but Kao noted that China is self-sufficient in more than 95 percent of its robotics supply chain.
As for why Tesla didn't show off its Optimus in action at the conference, Kao said the promotional videos already show the car has great potential, and he understands the company's reluctance to invest resources in hiring an engineer to run demos.
Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Jeff Bernstein, president of the U.S. Association for the Advancement of Automation (A3), spoke at the conference via recorded video and showed some virtual demos from humanoid robot startups like Agility.
“These are just demos, but like others they are now in pilot programs, and we think some companies are already starting to use them more than just a pilot program,” he said, noting that the society will hold its own robotics conference in Tennessee on Oct. 7.
Specialized focus
Rather than cloning an entire human being at once, robotics companies tend to focus on specific parts before moving on to others.
Among the products launched by Shenzhen-based Limex Dynamics this year is the P1, a research robot that can balance on two feet. It can climb and descend stairs and regain its balance when pushed.
Founded more than two years ago, Lemex Dynamics has had recent backers including Alibaba, according to PitchBook. The startup announced earlier this month that its robotic arm can move objects in warehouses and autonomously replan how to complete the task if the target is moved.
Other companies at the World Robotics Congress showed off a range of gears, robot hands and other parts.
By 2030, a single robot will likely be able to perform simple household tasks, nursing care and medical treatment, partly on its own and partly in cooperation with humans, Shigeki Sugano, president of the Japan Robotics Association, said Thursday during a conference forum.
He added that this includes the ability to express emotions. Fully autonomous robots are not expected to appear before 2050.
Among the development challenges, he said, if the humanoid robot is to fully support humans, it will need to address the current problem of not having enough power.
A human battery may only last two hours before it needs to be recharged.
