There is a 40% chance that President Joe Biden will not seek re-election, according to Stifel.
Brian Gardner, the firm's chief Washington policy strategist, issued a research note calling this a “make-or-break week” for the president's campaign, as Congress returns from its Fourth of July recess.
“There’s a 60 percent chance, which is more likely than not, that Biden will stay in office,” Gardner told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Monday. “Biden loves to prove the smart kids in the Democratic Party wrong. So the more he hears from the elites telling him to get out, the more he’ll stick with it.”
Gardner, who advises equity analysts on how White House policy will affect their coverage areas, believes Democrats urging Biden to withdraw face a significant hurdle.
“They lack leverage,” Gardner told his clients on Monday. “They can try to persuade Mr. Biden to drop out of the race, but they can’t force him out.” “It’s a fantasy to imagine that at least half of Mr. Biden’s most dedicated supporters would turn against him and not vote for his candidacy.”
While concerns about the president’s age persisted throughout his recent bid for the Oval Office, a poor debate performance in June has changed the tone of the conversation. Polling data and financial markets are beginning to reflect a shift in sentiment toward former President Donald Trump.
However, Gardner claims that the Democratic Party could see a positive outcome if Biden stays in the race.
“There is a certain level of voters who will never vote for Donald Trump no matter what,” Gardner said.
