Japanese Environment Minister Shinjiro Koizumi speaks during a press conference at the Prime Minister's Office in Tokyo on September 17, 2020.
Charlie Triballio | AFP | Getty Images
Japan's ruling Liberal Democratic Party is set to elect a new leader in September, and thus the country's next prime minister.
With nearly a dozen candidates entering the race, many analysts have described the field as competitive and unpredictable. The unusually open contest is the result of attempts within the party to stamp out “factional politics,” though factional ties remain strong. Factions are organized subgroups within the LDP with their own leaders and policy goals.
Among the possible candidates is Shinjiro Koizumi, who is scheduled to hold a news conference to announce his candidacy on September 6.
The 43-year-old son of former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is expected to be the youngest candidate in the race. Along with Takayuki Kobayashi, 49, who has already declared his candidacy, the two contenders are seen as the choices for a generational change in the party election.
Koizumi, a former environment minister, is known for his advocacy of renewable energy. He made headlines for surfing near Fukushima to help calm concerns about water safety after the discharge of treated wastewater, and for becoming the first government minister to take paternity leave in Japan.
While the public awaits official announcements from potential candidates, Koizumi is the closest to the frontrunner so far, said Rintaro Nishimura, a Japan-based analyst at Asia Group.
“His father’s legacy as a populist, reformist prime minister of the Liberal Democratic Party and the fact that he is seen, especially in the current climate, as scandal-free and fresh-faced compared to other candidates makes him an attractive candidate,” he said.
Nishimura said Koizumi has a good chance of winning votes from LDP members in parliament as well as grassroots members across Japan.
The winner of the LDP election will need to secure a majority of votes. If no candidate secures an absolute majority, the top two candidates will go to a runoff.
“This time, as LDP Diet members look ahead to next year's general election, many of them are worried about their survival — whether they will be able to keep their seats, especially younger Diet members who have held office for fewer terms,” Nishimura said.
“I don’t think the safe option is the choice this time, it’s more about who can win the general election, and in that case, someone popular, like Koizumi, will naturally be one of the favorites.”
Koizumi also emerged as one of the most popular choices among the general public. A poll by the local Asahi Shimbun newspaper showed Koizumi tied with Shigeru Ishiba in nationwide popularity at 21 percent each. However, Koizumi had the most support among LDP supporters surveyed, with 28 percent compared to Ishiba’s 23 percent, the poll showed.
But there are questions about Koizumi's level of experience and political outlook.
In a recent online article, Tobias Harris, founder of the consulting firm Japan Foresight, said that while Koizumi has “a great potential to radically transform the race,” his resume is thin: He has never held a senior party leadership position or a senior ministerial position.
“He is an effective campaigner who has worked on a range of issues, but his foreign policy experience is limited, which could be a particular weakness in a Liberal Democrat leadership election already affected by the U.S. presidential election and the prospect of a second Trump administration,” Harris wrote.
Little is also known about his economic policies.
“Koizumi has not commented on the Bank of Japan's policy normalization as far as I can tell,” Harris told CNBC.
“We can draw some conclusions — he was concerned about fiscal policy and the deficit, and he has ties to (former Defense Minister) Shigeru Ishiba and others who have been critical of Abenomics — but I don’t think we know for sure. Overall, the party is moving toward normalization, except on the right wing.”
Japan strategist Nicholas Smith of CLSA said it was too early for Koizumi to take the top job.
“It's all about experience. He's been elected five times. That's the bare minimum,” he said.
“Moreover, he held a junior ministerial position responsible for nuclear safety, but that is not a high-level position. People will say: You cannot be prime minister if you do not do the other tasks.”
The LDP election is scheduled for September 27.
