September is usually a tough month for Apple — and it’s hard to say whether this year will be any different. Apple is expected to announce new iPhones and Apple Watch on Sept. 9 during a press conference at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. The tech giant typically unveils these new models during its fall launch ahead of the holiday shopping season. Apple’s stock price tends to rise as investors build excitement ahead of its product announcements, according to FactSet analysis. But the stock’s lowest average returns occur during a launch month. Apple shares have averaged a 3.5% loss in September over the past 10 years. That decline comes after an average gain of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August, the analysis shows. Apple gained 3.1% in August and has jumped about 19% this year. Morgan Stanley analysts believe this year’s announcement from Apple could lead to a better stock performance than history suggests. That’s in part because the upcoming event — which will likely focus on the expected Apple Intelligence integration in the iPhone 16 model — could fuel demand for the company’s highly anticipated AI-related developments. “Historically, the iPhone launch event has been a news-selling event, with Apple slightly underperforming the market on the day of the iPhone launch and then only modestly outperforming the market in the three months following the event,” analyst Eric Woodring wrote in a note Thursday. “We don’t necessarily expect the market to behave differently when Apple introduces the iPhone 16 on September 9, but we see potential for Apple to outperform historical seasonality through the end of the year as the iPhone 16 introduction and Apple Intelligence help unleash pent-up demand.” Woodring said Apple shares have historically outperformed when the company’s product replacement cycles shorten. In fact, he expects iPhone replacement cycles to shrink through fiscal 2026. Apple remains a “first pick” for Morgan Stanley, and Woodring said he remains bullish on the tech company’s potential to push product renewal cycles by several years and accelerate iPhone replacement cycles. He has an overweight rating on the stock with a $273 price target, suggesting a potential upside of 19.2% from Friday’s close. On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating on the stock with a $190 price target, suggesting that the stock could see a 17% decline over the next year. He said in a note on Tuesday that August typically sees the lowest consumer purchases of iPhone models, adding that there are “risks building into the September launch.” Apple’s iPhones accounted for about 46% of the company’s total sales in the fiscal third quarter. “If iPhone units in August came in at about 14 million, down about 3% (month-over-month), in line with recent seasonality, and in the absence of channel fill, September 24 sales would need to be 22.6 million to hit our estimates, up about 20% year-over-year, which is high in our view given that Apple Intelligence is in beta and not available in Europe,” the analyst said.
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September is a historically tough month for Apple stock.
