Auliʻi Cravalho voices Moana in Disney Animation's “Moana 2.”
Disney
The domestic box office is poised for its biggest Thanksgiving haul since the pandemic hit thanks to a Polynesian princess, a pair of witches and a vengeance-seeking gladiator.
Disney “Moana 2” is scheduled to hit theaters Wednesday and has grossed between $120 million and $150 million at the U.S. and Canadian box office through Sunday. He will join him worldwide “evil” and Paramount “Gladiator II” are both in their second week of domestic showings.
Box office analysts believe the five-day Thanksgiving weekend, which runs from Wednesday to Sunday, should easily generate $200 million in ticket sales, and could become the second or third highest-grossing Thanksgiving period in cinema history.
“The trilogy of Moana 2, Wicked and Gladiator II is a true perfect storm for movie theaters this Thanksgiving,” said Sean Robbins, Director of Analytics at Fandango and founder of Box Office Theory.
“The holiday has regularly seen major releases combined to appeal to all audiences, but that has been a challenge for the industry to replicate in the post-pandemic era so far,” he said. “This year is very different with that holy trinity of tentpole releases that could anchor some of the biggest overall box office results the holiday framework has ever seen.”
Thanksgiving holiday revenue has not exceeded $200 million since 2019, according to data from Comscore. Currently, the highest-grossing Thanksgiving weekend is the 2018 slate, led by “Ralph Breaks the Internet,” “Creed II” and “Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald,” which generated $315 million in combined ticket sales. The second highest amount during the holiday period was $294.2 million secured during the same five-day period in 2013.
“Thanksgiving is arguably the most important holiday period of the year for movie theaters because it sets the tone for the year-end box office race,” said Paul Dergarabedian, senior media analyst at comScore. “The strength of the last few weeks of the year will determine the annual box office gross and its perception as a win or lose for the industry.”
Disney could use another win for animation.
After dominating the Thanksgiving box office for years with titles from Pixar and Disney Animation, it has failed to live up to expectations with its recent string of releases.
In 2016, “Moana” opened during the Thanksgiving holiday, grossing $82.1 million. The following year, “Coco” grossed $72.9 million during its opening, and in 2018, “Ralph Breaks the Internet” grossed $84.8 million during its five-day debut. Before the pandemic hit in 2019, Frozen II added $125 million over the Thanksgiving weekend after opening the previous week to more than $130 million.
Meanwhile, “Encanto,” which arrived in the middle of the pandemic, managed to collect $40.6 million in 2021. “Stranger World” flopped, having earned just $18.9 million during the holiday period in 2022, and “Wish” earned a paltry $31.6. $1 million in 2023. No Disney animated film was released during Thanksgiving in 2020.
However, “Moana 2” should outperform post-pandemic releases. It arrives in theaters a year after the first film was named the most-streamed film aimed at kids and families. Audiences came out in large numbers to watch Disney and Pixar's “Inside Out 2” during the summer. “Inside Out 2” opened with $154.2 million domestically and grossed more than $1 billion globally during its entire run.
Disclosure: Comcast is the parent company of NBCUniversal, CNBC, and Fandango. “Wicked” was distributed by NBCUniversal.
