J.P. Morgan Chase Microsoft CEO Jamie Dimon said Wednesday he still believes the chances of a “soft landing” for the U.S. economy are between 35% and 40%, making recession the most likely scenario in his mind.
When CNBC's Leslie Baker asked Dimon if he had changed his view since February that markets were too optimistic about recession risks, he said the odds were “about the same” as on his previous call.
“There’s a lot of uncertainty in the market,” Dimon said. “I’ve always pointed to geopolitics, housing, the deficit, spending, quantitative tightening, the election, and all of those things are causing some panic in the markets.”
Dimon, the leader of the largest U.S. bank by assets and one of the most respected voices on Wall Street, has warned of an economic “hurricane” since 2022. But the economy has held up better than he expected, and Dimon said Wednesday that while credit card defaults are rising, America is not in a recession now.
Dimon added that he has “some doubt” the Fed will be able to bring inflation down to its 2% target because of future spending on the green economy and the military.
“There’s always a wide range of outcomes,” Dimon said. “I’m quite optimistic that we’ll be fine if we have a mild recession, even if it’s a more severe one. Of course, I’m very sympathetic to people who are losing their jobs. Nobody wants a hard landing.”
