Heavy traffic begins to return to Interstate 275 South as residents evacuate in St. Petersburg, Florida, ahead of Hurricane Milton, United States, on October 7, 2024.
Octavio Jones | Reuters
Hurricane Milton, a once-in-a-century event, could cause more than $50 billion in damage, with damage potentially approaching $175 billion or more in a worst-case scenario, according to top Wall Street analysts.
That would be on top of the carnage left by Hurricane Helen, creating a potential record-breaking debris path.
“Although it is too early to make estimates of insured losses, the impact of a major hurricane in one of Florida's most populated areas could result in a loss in the billions of dollars,” Yaron Kenar, an equity analyst at Jefferies, and others said in a note. “Some estimate that a once-in-a-100-year event would result in $175 ($1 billion) in landfall losses in the Tampa area, and $70 ($1 billion) in landfall losses in the (Fort) Myers area.”
The feasibility is difficult to determine and will depend on timing and location, with landing near Fort Myers being less expensive.
To make a historical comparison, analysts only need to look back two years, when Hurricane Ian struck near the Fort Myers area as a Category 4 storm and left behind more than $50 billion in damages. Ian considered it a once every 20 years event.
“If Milton's path continues through the more developed Tampa area, the potential losses could be greater,” Kenar said.
Milton is currently in Category 4 as well, although it may be weakening by the time its full strength is felt.
Wells Fargo noted, “The market appears to be pricing in a loss of more than $50 billion (larger than Ian's) at this point.” The company identified a wide range of potential damages, from $10 billion to $100 billion.
The region has already been shaken, as Hurricane Helen tore through the region 12 days ago, leaving a trail of damage estimated by Moody's on Tuesday at $11 billion. In addition to property damage, Moody's notes that the National Flood Insurance Program will likely see losses approaching $2 billion.
The company's analysts have not yet estimated the potential damage from Milton.
Keke Kane and his father, Clinton Kane, walk through the ruins of their family's beach house, in the aftermath of Hurricane Helen in Horseshoe Beach, Florida, US, September 28, 2024.
Marco Bello | Reuters
“Hurricane Helen is the most impactful event of the 2024 hurricane season so far, although this could quickly change with Major Hurricane Milton due to impact Florida in the coming days,” said Mohsen Rahnama, Moody's chief risk modeling officer.
Moody's also noted that many in the hardest-hit areas where Hurricane Helen struck do not have flood insurance, “which means that most of the damage will not be insured, and that economic property losses will far outweigh the insured losses,” said Firas Saleh, the company's director. . Models of inland flooding in the United States
Milton weakened a bit Tuesday but was still packing 145 mph winds. It is expected to hit Tampa on Wednesday morning and bring waves between 10 and 15 feet high in Tampa Bay.
While the danger and damage to the area is expected to be enormous, the storm does not pose the same risk to neighboring countries that Helen hit.
