Home sales are expected to double by $100 million this year.

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Sales of $100 million homes are expected to double this year, as soaring financial markets and hopes of lower interest rates fuel a recovery in the ultra-luxury real estate market, according to new reports.

As of July 15, six homes in the U.S. had sold for more than $100 million, according to data from Miller Samuel and Douglas Elliman. If the sales pace continues, it will more than double last year’s total and likely top the record of nine homes selling for more than $100 million in 2021.

True, the nine-figure club is a small group. But sales of homes in the $50 million, $20 million and even $10 million ranges all point to a strong rebound in the ultra-luxury market after a slump in 2023. The resurgence stands in stark contrast to the national housing market, which is still feeling the pressures of high mortgage rates and a lack of supply.

“It’s a significant increase in the pace of sales, something we don’t see at all in the broader housing market,” said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel Appraisal and Research.

Manhattan has seen two huge deals in the past month or so. A penthouse in Central Park Tower—the tallest residential building in the world—sold for $115 million to an anonymous buyer. A penthouse in New York’s Aman Tower went for $135 million to Russian-born billionaire Vladislav Doronin, who founded the development company that built the building—effectively buying it from his own company.

Tarpon Island, Florida's only private island, sold for $150 million in May, and Oakley founder James Jannard sold his Malibu mansion for $210 million, making it the most expensive home ever sold in California.

Even San Francisco is getting in on the luxury real estate boom. Laurene Powell Jobs, the widow of billionaire Steve Jobs, has bought the most expensive home ever sold in San Francisco. She paid $70 million for a 17,000-square-foot mansion in Pacific Heights, sandwiched between her neighbor Larry Ellison and Apple design guru Jony Ive.

Signs of strength are also showing up further down the luxury ladder. According to Redfin, sales of homes priced at $5 million or more through June topped 4,000, up 13% from the same period last year.

“The start to the year has been stronger and more robust than anyone expected,” said Mike Golden, co-founder of Chicago-based @properties and Christie’s International Real Estate.

According to Christie’s Mid-Year 2024 Luxury Forecast, high-end markets across the country are seeing strong demand. In Naples, Florida, home sales over $10 million were up 14% in the first quarter, according to the report. In Montana, sales over $4 million were up 50% through early May, according to PureWest Christie’s International Real Estate.

The AI ​​boom has led to a sales boom in the San Francisco Bay Area.

“The biggest surprise to me so far in 2024 has been the number of qualified buyers who are able and willing to pay premium prices for ultra-luxury properties, which speaks to the huge liquidity at the top end of the market,” said Natalie Di Saint Andreu, a broker in the Gulf.

The divergent trajectories of ultra-luxury goods and the broader housing market highlight the dramatically different forces driving the luxury economy from the rest of the country. The national housing market rises and falls with mortgage rates, with affordability at all-time lows and many Americans locked into their homes on low-interest mortgages. The very wealthy can use cash to buy their homes, especially when prices are high. In Manhattan, two-thirds of transactions this spring were in cash, and the share was even higher for the luxury sector, according to Miller Samuel.

Moreover, the confidence (and money) of wealthy homebuyers is largely driven by the stock market, which continues to break records this summer. With trillions of dollars in stock wealth created, the ultra-wealthy are now looking to buy.

“The ultra-luxury real estate sector is completely separate from the typical housing market,” Miller said. “It’s more of a global market than a local one. It’s a barometer of the health of global financial markets.”

The rise in inheritance from the $80 trillion Great Wealth Transfer is also helping sales. Daniel de la Vega, president of One Sotheby’s International Realty, said he’s seeing a big increase in South Florida from millennial and Gen Z buyers buying condos with family funds.

“They want new development, and some of them come and buy without seeing the place. They especially like branded housing,” he said.

Another trend driving ultra-luxury sales is the demand for larger homes, De La Vega said. Post-Covid, wealthy buyers want all their favorite amenities in their homes — from gyms and spas to offices, entertainment spaces and displays for their art collections and cars, he added.

The price per square foot for luxury apartments in South Florida has increased 33% this year, to $3,451. The price per square foot for single-family homes has increased 11%, to $2,485.

“In the past, the price per square foot would go down as the property expanded,” De La Vega said. “Now it's the exact opposite. We've never seen numbers like this before. It's astronomical.”

Typically, the luxury real estate market grinds to a halt before a presidential election as buyers wait for more certainty. So far, strong financial markets have trumped any election concerns. However, the second half is far from over.

“At least from the actions we're seeing this year, the election doesn't seem to be a huge drag on the ultra-luxury scene,” Miller said.

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