Economic woes caused by inflation appear to have accelerated the shift of Latino voters toward Republicans, cutting in half the Democrats' lead with a crucial voting group in the run-up to a close presidential election, according to an NBC/CNBC/Telemundo survey.
The poll of 1,000 registered Latino voters found that the Democratic presidential candidate, Vice President Kamala Harris, is ahead of the Republican candidate, former President Donald Trump, by 54% to 40%. That's far less than the 36-point lead that President Joe Biden enjoyed in the run-up to the 2020 election. Biden's lead was nearly half the 50-point lead Hillary Clinton had over Trump in 2016, indicating a long-term trend showing Latinos are in the Democratic camp but in decreasing numbers.
“There is an intensity around these issues that is striking,” said Elaine Cardona Arroyo, senior vice president at Hart Research, the Democratic polling organization that participated in the poll. “The cost of living and inflation are actually what matter to a lot of voters.” “The way people think about the economy and the economic future of the country.”
The poll was conducted from September 15 to September 23 and has a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.
Harris's 14-point lead is the narrowest margin for a Democratic candidate among Latino voters surveyed in at least the past four elections, dating back to 2012. The poll also found a 54% to 42% preference for Democratic control of Congress among Latinos, the smallest lead for Democrats Since 2012. This indicates a shift that may extend far beyond just the presidential race.
“The data in this poll is not just a blip,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, who served as Republican pollster for the poll. “It continues a rapid and massive shift in the political identity of one of the most important groups of voters in America.”
Harris has a strong lead among respondents when it comes to personality issues: By two to one, Latino voters surveyed believe she will do a better job of meeting their needs; 48% gave Harris a favorable rating compared to 32% for Trump. She led Trump by about 20 points or more on questions about who has the right temperament to be president and who is most trustworthy, competent and effective.
But the poll shows that inflation and the cost of living, along with jobs and the economy, are the top two issues for Latinos, mirroring surveys of the broader population. Trump leads Harris on both, with a margin of 46% to 37% over Harris on who is better at handling inflation and 45% to 41% on who is better at handling the economy.
Harris has a 39-point advantage on who would be best at treating immigrants humanely and protecting immigrant rights, and a 32-point lead on abortion and even a five-point lead on crime. Harris' dominance on those issues highlights the importance of the economy and inflation in explaining Trump's gains among Latinos in this poll compared to 2020.
Harris's lead over Trump has narrowed significantly with younger voters ages 18 to 34, who favor the Democratic nominee by just 10 points compared to 44 points in 2020. Trump and Harris are tied among Latino men 47/47, a group that Biden led. A difference of 17 points. In polling leading up to the 2020 election, the Democratic advantage among Latina women is 26 points, but that represents about half of Biden's lead in 2020.
All of these groups rate the economy poorly, with Latino voters generally as pessimistic about the economy as the rest of the country. Only 23% view the current state of the economy as excellent or good, while 77% rate the economy as good or bad, roughly the same as the results of all voters in CNBC's All-American Economic Survey conducted in August. This is a potential problem for Democrats because Latinos have been fairly reliable Democratic voters and do not look at all like Democrats on the question of the economy. In the CNBC poll, Democrats rated the economy 42% excellent or good, compared to 23% for Latinos in that poll. 65% of Latinos say their wages are falling behind inflation. While this is roughly equal to the rest of the population, it is 11 points higher than in the NBC 2022 Latino poll. Women and younger Latinas say they have been hit hard by the price hikes.
Among those who say they are falling behind, 48% said the biggest impact was on the cost of groceries, 34% singled out rent and mortgage and 10% highlighted the rising cost of health care.
While Latinos have widely differing views on immigration, it was ranked as the fourth most important area of concern, after inflation, jobs and even threats to democracy. The survey found that 62% of participants believe that immigration helps the country more than it harms, while 35% said the opposite. It's the smallest positive immigration showing among Latinos since at least 2006.
According to the poll, Trump leads Harris by 47 votes to 34 votes on the question of who is better at securing the border and controlling immigration.
A modest majority of 52% of Latino voters said it is more important to provide a path to citizenship for immigrants and prevent discrimination, compared with 47% who say it is more important to secure the border and prevent immigrants from entering illegally.
However, 91% support a path for undocumented spouses to obtain citizenship, and 87% support a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants who were brought here as children.
Here's a demographic snapshot of Latino voters from the NBC/CNBC/Telemundo poll:
52% say they speak primarily English, while the remainder say they speak only or both Spanish. Their family heritage goes back to Mexico by 56%; 16% to Puerto Rico; 11% for Spain; 5% for Cuba; 5% in favor of the Dominican Republic. 49% Democrats, 37% Republicans, 13% Independents. 32% say they are liberal. 37% moderate; 29% are conservative. 49% Catholic, 21% Protestant, 28% others/none.
Correction: Sunday's poll included 1,000 registered Latino voters. The group was incorrectly described in an earlier version of this article.
