Elon Musk embraces Donald Trump during a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5, 2024.
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Elon Musk's relationship with Donald Trump has fueled expectations that he may soften the US president-elect's policy stance toward Beijing, but experts warn against putting too much stock in the Tesla CEO.
The billionaire was one of the largest donors to Trump's campaign, and it is said that he could obtain a cabinet or advisory position in the White House.
In the run-up to the election, their relationship sparked Beijing's interest because of Musk's close ties to China, where his company was based Teslaruns a “huge factory”.
“There has been widespread curiosity in China in the past few months about whether Musk could be the new Kissinger and help broker a deal between Washington and Beijing,” said Scott Kennedy, senior adviser and chairman of the board of trustees of the China Business and Economics Department at the Center for Strategic Studies. . and international studies.
He added: “Whether this is an ingenious vision that will help prevent relations from collapsing or part of an unrealistic appeasement scenario that the Chinese want to tell themselves, it is difficult to know at this stage.”
US diplomat Henry Kissinger, who passed away last year, is credited with normalizing relations between the United States and China, starting with his first visit to Beijing in July 1971.
Kissinger was highly respected in China and continued to meet with its leaders as an unofficial diplomat in efforts to promote warmer relations between the two countries. A few months before Kissinger's death in November 2023, he met with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing in July 2023.
Hopes have arisen that Musk can fill the gap left by Kissinger as he increasingly engages with high-level officials in China, where he established Tesla as the country's first wholly foreign-owned automaker in 2018.
During his last visit in April, Tesla and SpaceX met with Chinese Premier Li Qiang, who cited Tesla as an example of successful business cooperation between Beijing and Washington, according to state media.
Wang Yiwei, director of the Institute of International Relations at Renmin University, told CNBC that Musk is seen as a businessman who understands both China and the United States.
This could see him help push for some flexibility or even a reversal of the tough tariff increases that Trump has threatened to impose on products made in China, Wang said. He expressed hope that Musk's work in manufacturing would enable Chinese companies to reach an agreement to build factories in the United States
Musk expressed concerns about tensions between the two countries and criticized Joe Biden's administration when it raised tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles to 100% earlier this year. The Biden administration has rolled out a range of policies aimed at bringing high-tech manufacturers back to the United States, many of which Trump is expected to support.
A businessman, not a diplomat
Wang Huiyao, founder of the Beijing-based China Research Center, said that in order to have a real impact on US policy, one businessman, even the richest man in the world, will not be enough to improve relations in the way Kissinger was previously able to. And globalization.
Instead, Wang said a group of prominent business and thought leaders, including Elon Musk, Apple's Tim Cook, and Blackstone Group's Stephen Schwarzman, could serve as a “Kissinger group.”
He said it may not have the same impact as Kissinger, given the more complex period, although it could help stabilize relations.
Cook and Schwarzman also regularly visit leaders in China, where Beijing often highlights them as examples of positive trade and commerce relations between China and the United States.
“Although China has sometimes used influential Americans as unofficial conduits, it is a stretch to view Musk as a modern-day Kissinger,” DeWardrick McNeil, Longview Global's managing director and senior policy analyst, told CNBC.
The primary obligation for these “informal intermediaries” is to shareholders, not national interests, he said, adding that active political engagement could lead to “conflicts of interest” and put business leaders under intense scrutiny, if diplomacy fails.
During Trump's first term, China actually tried to create “back channels” with prominent American businessmen, including businessman and real estate developer Steve Wynn, in hopes of influencing policy, McNeil said.
Such efforts appeared to have had little impact on Trump's approach to China and led to the Justice Department issuing a lawsuit that sought to register Wen as a foreign agent for his alleged lobbying work on behalf of the Chinese government.
This time, Trump announced his intention to impose a comprehensive tariff ranging from 10% to 20% on all imports, in addition to additional tariffs ranging from 60% to 100% on products imported from China.
“Musk may open certain doors, but committed, stubborn diplomacy can't open any of them either,” McNeil said, adding that pinning diplomatic hopes on such a figure, whose primary loyalty is to his own projects, could be a misjudgment.
“The unpredictability of Musk's strong and sometimes controversial views is not necessarily aligned with the diplomatic or strategic interests of either country.”
