Elections remember jumping on company conference calls as November 5 approaches

Executives at the largest US companies are speaking openly with investors about the presidential elections more than they have in recent sessions.

The word “election” appeared in 100 earnings calls Standard & Poor's 500– Companies listed between September 15 and October 31, according to FactSet. This is the largest number of companies in the broad index to mention the word during this time frame, according to CNBC for the same period dating back to 2004. The US presidential election is scheduled for Tuesday, November 5.

The economy is on the minds of ordinary Americans as they head to the polls for what appears to be a close race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. At the same time, administrative leaders are considering potential political impacts on their businesses, while lamenting the general feeling of instability associated with the political season.

“Because of the uncertainty around the election and a variety of other things, you can feel a little cautious there,” he added. Dover CEO Richard Tobin told analysts on the specialty manufacturer's earnings call in late October.

John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet, first noted the volume of companies discussing the election in recent weeks. Notably, his data found that very few CEOs of S&P 500 companies mentioned Harris or Trump by name, and talked about the race more broadly.

Many companies cited a sense of unpredictability associated with the presidential race among consumers and business customers.

in Supply of tractorsCEO Harry Lawton said his client was expected to remain “cautious” like in past election years. This comes after the farm-focused retailer reported an increase in emergency response sales to start the quarter following Hurricanes Helen and Milton.

Southwest AirlinesMeanwhile, it expects a “trough” in air travel on Election Day, according to Chief Operating Officer Andrew Watterson. But when it comes to booking trends, Royal Caribbean CEO Michael Bailey said there has historically been no long-term impact from a presidential election, although the cruise line may see some volatility during the week of the contest.

In addition to Election Day, market participants and business leaders are closely monitoring the Federal Reserve's monetary policy meeting next week. Tool maker Stanley Black & Decker CEO Donald Allan listed elections and interest rates as reasons to expect “volatile markets” in the first half of 2025.

Fed funds futures are pricing in a roughly 96% chance the cost of borrowing will fall at the November meeting, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool as of Friday evening. This comes after the central bank in September issued its first interest rate cut since 2020.

Stanley Black & Decker's Alan also pointed to Trump's import taxation policy, noting that America “will likely be on a new tariff regime.” The Republican candidate said he plans to impose a 20% tax on imports, with an additional high rate of up to 60% on imports from China.

William Grogan, CFO of Water Infrastructure Corporation WoodHe said the election is one factor creating “a bit of a pause” in the industrial market for large projects. Republic services CEO John Vander Ark said the waste disposal company sees “a little bit of election year paralysis,” but he's optimistic heading into the end of 2024 and the beginning of 2025.

More broadly, says Eric Eschelman, CEO of… IndexThe company, which makes components for everything from airbags to DNA testing equipment, said racing had not helped the economic backdrop recently.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by the smallest number in October since late 2020 due to hurricanes and the Boeing strike. In this context, Equifax She said she's seen background check volumes weaken as executives consider what the result could mean for their business.

“As the election approaches, companies appear to be becoming more cautious about new hiring,” said Equifax CEO Mark Bigor.

To be sure, some of the references to “elections” this year were tied to unrelated events like health care enrollment periods. Other companies range from software company Tyler techniques To the credit card giant American Express They said they did not feel the effects of the election on business.

“This company has been around for a long time,” American Express CEO Stephen Squirre told analysts last month. “I mean, obviously we haven't had tickets in 174 years. But we've had a lot of different elections; a lot of different configurations of the House and the Senate and so on.”

Residential stocks Meanwhile, CEO Mark Burrell said state and local government are more important to the company than which party will emerge at the top of the ticket. The company is a real estate investment trust focused on apartments.

However, this course appears to engage a uniquely large number of leaders within America's largest corporations. The number of mentions of 2024 is equivalent to the word “election” during this time frame coming in the calls of about one in five companies within the S&P 500. It is also more than three times the number of references during the same period in 2008.

Dr. Horton Buyers are seen “remaining on the sidelines” given expectations of lower mortgage rates in 2025 and election-related pressures, according to CEO Paul Romanowski. The homebuilder is trying to boost demand by offering mortgage buyouts and focusing on building homes with smaller floor plans, he said.

Another member of Dr. Horton's executive group spoke more frankly about the election.

“I think everyone will be happy that the election is over,” Chief Operating Officer Michael Murray told analysts on the company's earnings conference call. “I think it will help buyers' morale and ability to move forward with their life decision.”