CNBC poll says presidential election is hot even though Trump is well ahead of Harris on the economy

With less than two weeks to go before the election, the CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows that the presidential contest remains statistically hot both nationally and in hotly contested states, unchanged from the August poll although there has been some notable movement among major groups.

Nationally, former President Donald Trump has a 48%-46% lead over Vice President Kamala Harris, within a poll margin of error of 3.1% and unchanged from August. In the seven battleground states, Trump leads 48% to 47%, within a margin of error of 4% for this part of the poll.

The poll was conducted from October 15 to 19, and included a total sample of 1,000 voters nationwide. The nationwide sample included 186 voters from swing states like Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An additional 400 voters were interviewed in those states to obtain a total sample of 586 voters from competitive states.

Whether at the national level or on the battlefield, economic issues remain voters' primary concern. Trump enjoys a significant lead among voters who prioritize inflation, the economy and meeting the needs of the middle class. By a margin of 42% to 24%, voters say they would be better off financially if Trump wins, while 29% say their financial situation will not change regardless of who is elected. Voters who say inflation, the cost of living and the economy in general are the most important issues favor Trump by 13 points. Inflation remained the top issue throughout the election cycle.

“Although the data show inflation is slowing in theory, it has become more important in people’s minds over the past three quarters, not less,” said Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, the Democratic pollster responsible for the poll. . .

The poll also showed that Trump has a 35-point lead among voters most concerned about immigration and a 19-point lead on the issue of crime and safety.

Harris leads on a variety of second-tier issues, areas of serious concern that rate less than the economy. They include a 31-point Harris lead among voters most concerned about abortion, a 9-point lead on protecting democracy, an 8-point lead on health care, and a 60-point lead on climate change.

The question for Harris is whether combined support for those less important issues will be enough to overcome her deficit on major economic issues. The two candidates are statistically tied on who would be best placed to bring about positive change in the nation.

Personal issues appear to be making the race close. Harris has a 13-point lead when respondents were asked who would be in better mental and physical health to be president. She is 10 points ahead of Trump on who is more honest and trustworthy. However, both numbers show an improvement for Trump compared to the NBC news poll conducted in September.

Trump has also succeeded in improving his popularity ratings. The net favorability rating of 13 points (positive minus negative) has improved since August to -6 nationally. Views of Harris were slightly less negative at -10, compared to -8 in August. (It rose to +3 in September in an NBC poll, but now appears to have given up its post-convention gains.) Harris performed best in battleground states with a net favorability rating of -5, equal to Trump's.

The poll shows that American voters are divided along racial, gender, economic and educational lines, with some movement beneath the surface. The gender gap remains the most pronounced split, but Trump's net support of +17 among men is greater than Vice President Harris's +12 support among women. Harris maintained a large 27-point lead among voters of color but lost 10 points compared to August. She leads by 38 points among voters of color in hotly contested states. Compared to August, Trump improved his numbers among less educated and low-income voters, while Harris performed better among middle-class and wealthy voters.

“Trump’s advantage is that he wins more men than he loses women,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, which polled Republican opinion for the poll. “It's a difference because of younger men, and the advantage among younger men is strong, and it's not as strong for Harris among younger women, and older women in particular.”

Harris leads by 8 points among women over 50 nationally, but is tied with Trump across the pack in battleground states.

While the official inflation rate has fallen sharply, a CNBC poll shows Americans are not feeling it. Three-quarters of the public believe prices are still rising, with 45% saying they are rising faster than before. Only 16% say prices have stabilized, while only 6% see them falling; Only 7% see their incomes rising faster than inflation, 27% say they are staying put despite inflation, and 63% say they are declining. Meanwhile, just 26% said the economy was excellent or good, while 73% answered either fair or poor, a modest improvement compared to August.

However, 37% of the public believes the economy will improve next year, the highest level in more than three years, an increase that typically occurs around the time of an election and may be more related to Americans' views on the election results than their own. Views on economics.

The full survey results can be found here.