Pollster Frank Luntz: Nevada, Pennsylvania will still be too close to call tomorrow
Pollster and political strategist Frank Luntz said on CNBC's “Squawk Box” this morning that he believes Pennsylvania and Nevada will be too close to call Wednesday morning, and that the general public won't know the results of the presidential election until “either late Friday Or early Saturday.” “
“If Trump loses either of them (Georgia and North Carolina), it will be a victory for Harris,” Luntz said. “If Trump wins either Pennsylvania or Michigan, it will be a victory for Trump.”
Other metrics Luntz is “watching carefully” are the Latino vote in Nevada and Arizona, whether older conservative women will vote for Harris a little more than they normally would for a Democratic candidate, and younger women who are “more supportive of Harris than any Democratic group.” “, and whether or not today's polls will see record turnout, which would be “good news for Trump.”
– Ace Yildirim
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy explains how Trump could win tonight
Former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy joined CNBC's “Squawk Box” this morning to talk about his predictions for tonight. McCarthy claimed that polls are underestimating support for Trump in Wisconsin, and explained how he believes Harris will perform in Pennsylvania.
– Ace Yildirim
The first results are from a small town in New Hampshire – it's a tie between Harris and Trump
A voter walks his dog after casting his ballot in the nation's first midnight vote for the New Hampshire primary in the living room of the Tillotson home at the Balsams Grand Resort in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, on January 23, 2024.
Sebastien Saint-Jean | AFP | Getty Images
Harris and Trump tied in the midnight race in Dixville Notch, an unincorporated community in a small New Hampshire town where there are six registered voters this year.
Three of those electors went for Harris while the other three went for Trump. Polls opened at midnight and closed at 12:07 a.m. Eastern time
Since 1960, Dixville Notch voters have followed the tradition of submitting their ballots in person in a wooden box just after midnight, before the results are announced minutes later.
Although the Dixville Notch score is not a predictive metric, the tradition that started Election Day events has decades of staying up late.
This year, the tie between Harris and Trump happens to mirror the tight race that polls have reported over the past few months. In 2020, President Biden received all five Dixville Notch member votes before winning the at-large race.
-Rebecca Picciotto
Shares of Trump Media rose in pre-market trading
Republican presidential candidate former US President Donald Trump gestures during an 11th hour meeting of faith leaders in Concord, North Carolina, US on October 21, 2024.
Brian Snyder | Reuters
shares Trump Media and Technology Group Stocks are trading higher this morning as investors make some of their final bets on the former president's company in his final hours in the race against Harris.
DJT stock was up nearly 9% in pre-market open time.
Meme stock tends to be volatile, but over the course of the election, it is often seen as a proxy measure of Trump's chances at a second term.
Wall Street analysts have listed it as a stock to watch before Election Day.
Read the full story here
-Fred Imbert and Rebecca Picciotto
What does Trump do on Election Day?
Republican presidential candidate, former President Donald Trump holds a fist at a campaign rally at Santander Arena on November 04, 2024 in Reading, Pennsylvania.
Chip Somodevilla | Getty Images
Trump concluded his campaign on Monday with four rallies in three swing states: two in Pennsylvania, in addition to one each in North Carolina and Michigan.
On Election Day, the only officially announced event is the Trump-Vance viewing party at the Palm Beach Convention Center in West Palm Beach, Florida.
– Kevin Breuninger
More than 77 million people cast early ballots
Duke University students wait in line with Durham County residents to cast their ballots at a campus polling site during the penultimate day of early voting in the state, in Durham, North Carolina, U.S., November 1, 2024.
Jonathan Drake | Reuters
More than 77 million Americans have already cast ballots by mail or in person, according to an NBC News early voting tally.
That's far lower than in 2020, when more than 100 million Americans voted early. But those findings came in the midst of the deadly COVID-19 pandemic, when many Americans avoided public gatherings and states dramatically expanded rules for absentee and early voting.
Trump criticized early voting in 2020 — a stance that may have helped President Joe Biden clinch several key swing states.
While Trump has at times waxed nostalgic about voting for one day in the 2024 cycle, his campaign and Harris' campaign have mostly encouraged their supporters to vote as soon as possible.
NBC data, provided by TargetSmart, shows Democrats slightly ahead of Republicans in the early vote tally, 41% to 39%.
Of the seven key battleground states, more registered Democrats appear to have voted early in three — Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin — while registered Republicans are ahead in Arizona, Nevada, North Carolina and Georgia.
Voters fill out their ballots for the presidential election during early voting before polls close on November 5 at the Detroit Elections Office in Detroit, Michigan, United States on October 28, 2024.
Rebecca Cook | Reuters
What all this means for the bottom line is not at all clear.
While early voting numbers are often seen as a signal about some voters' enthusiasm or expected turnout, it is difficult to predict how many other voters will show up on Tuesday. It is also difficult to know in advance whether a party's early vote share “cannibalizes” turnout on Election Day.
An NBC analysis found that among early voters in 2024 who did not vote in 2020, Democrats outperform Republicans in Pennsylvania, and Democrats make up the largest group of new voters in the state.
But in Arizona, there were more new Republican voters than Democratic voters, with male Republicans leading.
– Kevin Breuninger
What does Kamala Harris do on Election Day?
Democratic presidential candidate US Vice President Kamala Harris smiles during her campaign rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, USA, on November 4, 2024.
Eloisa Lopez | Reuters
After sweeping Pennsylvania on Monday, Harris' Election Day schedule is relatively sparse — at least for now.
The only item on her agenda is an election night watch party at Howard University, her alma mater in Washington, D.C
The campaign will hold an event at “The Yard,” the main plaza on campus.
Walz and his wife, Gwen Walz, are also scheduled to participate in a political event in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, NBC News reported.
– Kevin Breuninger
